An Astronomical 52 Million People Would Be Uninsured Under GOP -Trumpcare in 2026 — Compared to 28 Million Under Obamacare, CBO Estimates

The Congressional Budget Office’s  review of the Republican’s health care plan — designed to replace Obamacare — shows drastic increases of uninsured people compared to the current law.

According to the estimate released today, 14 million more people would be uninsured under the GOP bill in 2008 compared to the existing Affordable Care Act.  That number would incrementally increase — 21 million in 2020, and then 24 million in 2026.

By 2026, an estimated 52 million would be uninsured, compared to 28 million who would not have insurance under the existing law, the CBO says.

Most of the uninsured increases next year would “stem from repealing the penalties associated with the individual mandate,” the CBO adds. “Some of those people would choose not to have insurance because they chose to be covered by insurance under current law only to avoid paying the penalties, and some people would forgo insurance in response to higher premiums.

The CBO estimates that the proposed legislation would reduce federal deficits by $337 billion over the 2017-2026 period.

“The largest savings would come from reductions in outlays for Medicaid and from the elimination of the Affordable Care Act’s subsidies for nongroup health insurance,” the office said.















Doctors’ Orders: Deny GOP Healthcare Reform Plan – 10 Million Would Lose Coverage

The American Medical Association today  blasted the GOP’s healthcare reform plan, saying it would cause “many Americans to lose the health care coverage they have come to depend upon.”
The AMA pointed out that as many as 10 million people could lose coverage, adding that 2 to 4 million “could lose the insurance they purchased in the individual health exchanges” under Obamacare.  In addition, 4 million to 6 million could lose Medicaid coverage, the AMA said.

The powerful physicians group referred to a S&P Global Ratings estimate that as many as 10 million Americans could lose coverage under the GOP plan. It was figured out this way: About 2 million and 4 million people might lose the insurance they purchased in the individual health exchanges under Obamacare. And another 4 million and 6 million could lose their coverage under Medicaid.

The proposal to replace Obamacare “would reverse the coverage gains achieved under the (Affordable Care Act),” the AMA said in a statement today.

The Republicans’ plan “as introduced, it does not align with the health reform objectives that the AMA set forth in January to protect patients,” the AMA said. “While the ACA is imperfect, the current version of the AHCA is not legislation we can support.”

“The replacement bill, as written, would reverse the coverage gains achieved under the ACA,” the powerful physicians’ group said.

The AMA sent a letter to House committees beginning today reviewing the plan, said the organization’s CEO and Executive Vice President James L. Madara, MD.  The plan “just won’t do,” he said.


— Joe Cantlupe

The 20 Million People Question

President Trump often talks about what a disaster Obamacare is. This is a healthcare blog that cites “data” – the one thing usually missing from his speeches. Numbers. Or numbers in context. Numbers with details.

On most any topic, Trump usually talks from his gut — visceral comments, “fantastic” “terrible” or, yes, a “disaster.” But as President, you gotta ditch the gut hyperbole.  As Trump speaks to Congress tonight, he is likely  stray not far from the script: and  talk numbers around proposed budget cuts (the environment, anyone?), or increases, (the military), or even some reflection of stability (Medicare and Social Security).  Will he lay out enough data  for Americans to figure out his healthcare plan as he vows to overhaul Obamacare?

Just recently, Trump added a new word to his lexicon: healthcare reform is “complicated.” Unspoken: lots of numbers. Sen. Bernie Sanders almost gagged.

Trump may or may not spout detailed figures tonight when he discusses healthcare reform, but the most important  one is this: 20 million more people have health insurance as a result of Obamacare.

As the AMA (American Medical Association) Wire’s Kevin B. O’Reilly  wrote: “For America’s physicians, 20.4 million is not just an abstract figure. It represents their patients—living with illness or working to prevent it—who now have health insurance coverage to support their care.”

“And as the nation’s elected representatives consider changes to the health system, it is a number no one wants to see go in the wrong direction,” he added.

What direction will we go in healthcare?

Recently, Rick Pollack, president and CEO of the American Hospital Association and Marilyn Tavenner, president and CEO of America’s Health Insurance Plans, focused on the same question at a Nashville Health Care Council panel discussion. That talk had one major topic: Medicaid.

A “proposal to transition Medicaid funding to block grants, was a recurring theme throughout the discussion,” the council said in a statement.  

“So much of this is yet to be defined,” Pollack was quoted as saying. “Our concern continues to be making sure patients have coverage. We support giving flexibility to the states, but our fear is that block grants or per capita caps could be a vehicle that further constrains a program that is already severely underfunded.”

Even with Obamacare and its resulting 20 million more people having access to healthcare, the AMA Wire’s O’Reilly wrote that there are still problems if the existing law stays the way it has been. For one thing, there is a need to “stabilize  the individual insurance market and improve choices and options for patients,” he wrote.

Among the problems, O’Reilly added: “Many families are not eligible to get premium and cost-sharing subsidies to purchase coverage on the ACA exchanges because of a so-called ‘family glitch’ where a father or mother is only offered employer coverage as individual and not for the family,” he said. Then,  the family is not then eligible for coverage through an ACA exchange,” O’Reilly wrote.

This “family glitch” has affected an estimated 10.5 million adults and children, according to HHS, O’Reilly wrote.

Millions of people. Will the President talk numbers? More numbers, more question marks.

— Joe Cantlupe